Korzenevica, M., Ewoton, P., Dyer, E., Ngikadelio, M., and Ong’ao Ng’asike, P. (2024)
Climate uncertainty has always existed both as a socio-ecological reality for pastoralists living with climate variability in drylands and as a component within climate modelling, yet there is little consideration as to the experiences of poor people in the urban drylands living with intensified hazards. This paper discusses an emerging conceptual nexus of uncertainty and precarity, using the example of flood disaster governance in Lodwar, a small yet rapidly growing urban centre in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya. The paper is grounded within feminist political ecology and is based on multiple predominantly qualitative research methods, mainly semi-structured interviews. We conclude that precarity unfolds through a combination of climate uncertainty, arbitrary vertical(institutional support) and horizontal (social network) disaster governance, and vulnerability defined by structural causes. It manifests through stressful living in suspension waiting for governmental support, as well as unpredictability in relation to support within social networks that can be both crucial but also unpredictable and exclusionary. Finally, precarity is intersectional and subjective; vulnerable people experience high unpredictability and suffering and have a low ability for strategic adaptation even if they manage to be resourceful during the disaster.
